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As spooky season approaches, trick-or-treaters may face an unexpected fright: a serious chocolate drought. That’s right—prepare your best sad face, kids. Due to cocoa prices that have tripled faster than your favorite cartoon villain can laugh, ghoulishly delicious chocolate bars may not be filling out your Halloween stash this year.
According to data from Wells Fargo that’s about as sweet as a dentist’s appointment, cocoa prices have hit their highest levels ever. This has left confectionery wizards scrambling to whip up alternative potions, which might mean smaller chocolate bars or—gasp—more non-chocolate treats competing for your attention in aisles traditionally dominated by the choco-magic.
“Cocoa is a diva crop,” said David Branch from Wells Fargo’s Agri-Food Institute. “It only wants to grow in the right spots with the right weather. Think of it like a Hollywood star; it doesn’t just go anywhere.” However, Mother Nature—perhaps still bitter about being snubbed at an award show—has sent weather tantrums to the cocoa-rich lands of West Africa, which feeds nearly 70% of our global chocolate cravings.
For the past few years, these regions have faced more storms than a reality TV reunion special. El Niño has played the role of chaotic director, stressing cocoa trees with droughts and flooding, while shady trade winds have blocked their precious sunshine, resulting in a 14.2% plummet in cocoa production, according to the International Cocoa Organization.
Even chocolate titan Hershey is feeling the pinch, announcing a jaw-dropping 48.7% drop in profit. Michele Buck, Hershey’s president, lamented on an analyst call that cocoa prices are “not sustainable.” (Don’t worry; Halloween treats are *still* safe for now—because who wouldn’t want a trick-or-treat with bitterly overpriced chocolate?)
But hold onto your candy bags! Cocoa analysts predict that thanks to some miraculous weather improvements, we might be headed for a surplus sooner than expected. “Things are looking up for this year’s cocoa crop,” Branch said, sounding almost optimistic. “Prepare for the chocolate tide to turn—not all hope is lost.”
Now, while we celebrate a potential chocolate comeback, brace yourselves for the reality that high prices will likely linger until at least September 2025. So, candy companies are turning to tricks of their own: think more “shrinkflation” than “spooktacular.” The result? Sassy little candy bags weighing in lighter, but at the same price—just what parents want to explain to their children.
“It’s like a two-pound bag of assorted candy mysteriously morphs into one that weighs less—magic!” Branch explained, as if he were casting a spell to smooth over rising anger among devoted candy fans. And if they can’t give you more chocolate, they’re not afraid to get creative with flavors. You might just find your chocolate-creature surprise now crammed with peanuts or wafers instead. Perhaps it’s a futuristic confection – chocolate-less chocolate, anyone?
Meanwhile, candy giant Mars is tapping into the fruity trend, debunking the myth that chocolate is still the undisputed king of Halloween. “We’re just adding gummy worms and Skittles to the mix,” they proclaimed, unwilling to let chocolate hold all the trick-or-treating glory.
Yet, before you cram all your chocolate lovers’ dreams into the haunted box of despair, let’s not forget: chocolate sales still take the cake! According to the National Confectioners’ Association, chocolates accounted for over half of the $25.9 billion Total candy sales last year. So, while consumers may nibble less than before, chocolate isn’t fading into the graveyard just yet.
“Everyone may be purchasing a little less, but come Halloween, candy lovers will still find chocolate knocking at their doors,” said Sally Lyons Wyatt, chief advisor of consumer packaged goods. Cue the joyous Halloween homage to chocolate’s enduring legacy—where there are treats, there’s hope, and maybe a few less calories than before (definitely not on the label)!
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