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PHOENIX — In an eyebrow-raising twist that only Arizona politics can serve up, Mesa Mayor John Giles, a Republican who’s decided to throw in his lot with Kamala Harris—yes, the same Kamala who may or may not be an alien under the radar—has found himself scratching his head over the chaotic circus that is Arizona’s election season. While his buddy Kamala is off doing her presidential thing, the chaos in down-ballot races is hotter than a jalapeño in July.
Polls show Kari Lake—Trump’s personal cheerleader on caffeine—floundering like a fish out of water, losing serious traction with the very Trump supporters who should be throwing confetti at her feet. Instead, they’re doing the unthinkable: cheering for her opponent, Rep. Ruben Gallego. “I don’t get it,” Giles mused when asked about the bizarre Trump effect that seems to award the former president a sort of Teflon coating against all appearances of intelligence. “When Trump says something outrageous, people clap like seals at SeaWorld, but when Kari Lake does the same? It’s eye-roll central.”
It’s a classic case of political parallel universes in Arizona, where Senate races and House elections play out like they’re in totally different movies—one’s a slapstick comedy, and the other’s a horror story. Meanwhile, a ballot measure to secure abortion rights might as well be auditioning for a part in a Shakespearean tragedy; it’s not handing the Democrats the boost they were clamoring for.
In the House, two Republican congressmen are preparing to wrestle with their Democratic opponents like it’s the WWE. Seven-term Rep. David Schweikert is doing his best to hold off Dr. Amish Shah in a race that could be sponsored by Dramamine—a real rollercoaster ride in those blue-leaning Phoenix suburbs. And in Tucson, freshman Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani is facing off against Kirsten Engel, who’s already had him sweating bullets once before.
Both House races are what the nonpartisan Cook Political Report calls “toss-ups,” which sounds suspiciously like they just can’t be bothered to pick a side. “It’s gonna come down to the candidates, not the big-name presidential or Senate contenders,” said a Democratic operative who prefers the cloak of anonymity more than a superhero on a secret mission. “It’s like a weird episode of Survivor: Who will be voted off the island based purely on personality?”
Meanwhile, the Democrats seem puzzled that Gallego’s popularity doesn’t magically lift them all up, while the Republicans are giving a firm high-five to Lake for not weighing them down like a stubborn anchor. There’s the ongoing debate surrounding abortion—how do you convince voters that the GOP candidates are plotting against their rights while they try to emulate Trump’s “let’s wing it” strategy?
“Arizonans are quirky ticket-splitters,” acknowledged one GOP strategist, mirroring what one would expect from a conspiracy theorist’s manifesto. “You could see someone casting their lot with the unholy Trinity of Trump, Gallego, and Schweikert. I’d love to peer into their minds, though,” he joked. “What’s their secret sauce?”
Trump’s family of followers has also sensed Lake’s slip. “Trump’s too busy being Trump to hitch his wagon to anyone else’s star,” a Trump campaign official squeaked from the safety of anonymity, perhaps worried about Lake’s candidacy turning into a tragicomedy.
Adding to the absurdity, the Democrats have become the fashionable choice for suburb-dwelling white college graduates, leaving the GOP sweating like a sinner in church. But don’t count the Democrats out; they hold a ticking time bomb of Latino voter discontent, particularly among men without a diploma who might start sulking back to their couches.
In this delightful mess, Gallego’s résumé includes being a Latino male veteran, which he fervently hopes will charm voters who might have ghosted the Democrats. “I’m your key to a statewide victory,” he mused, with the confidence of a contestant on a game show. Meanwhile, some lifelong Republicans are now about as loyal to the GOP as cats to their owners, making the switch to the Democratic ticket based solely on one criterion: Trump’s endorsement was like a red light.
As the candidates lock horns, Republicans are busy waving their crime, border security, and inflation banners, while Democrats chant the blessed trio of healthcare, abortion, and Social Security like a political liturgy.
In yet another unpredictable plot twist, a recent survey discovered that far-right GOP Rep. Eli Crane might just be crashing in his own red district, struggling to keep pace with Trump by a mere ten points, as the locals ponder their ticket-splitting options—because who doesn’t love a good political buffet?
Crane’s unfortunate misstep in teaming up against former Speaker Kevin McCarthy during a coup didn’t do him any favors, fueling speculation that even a Navajo running against him could change the outcome—because nothing says “politics” quite like an indigenous twist that threatens to upset the status quo.
Arizona politics: where absurdity is king, and rationality is relegated to the sidelines, sipping a lukewarm drink and rolling its eyes.
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